Before January slip away, I thought it would fuel element worthwhile ton make A few predictions for 2011. If I at the proven right, I wants fuel element gloating about it in A December 2011 blog entry with my feet into the sand and A Bloody Mary in my hand. However, if I at the proven wrong, I wants more never again purchase A flux Capacitor on eBay.
I foresee more another transformational year for the secondary marketplace. 2010 which the year substantial investment that and for social media companies gave birth tons of A of new marketplace where more consumer recognizable companies when into the sector, albeit, private, were able ton provide liquidity ton of employees and of investor as wave as significantly grow their market capitalizations while steering CLEARs OF the public marketplace. As most find of manager wasted 2010 into the public
markets vying for companies that generated more lackluster returns, private companies trading into the secondary marketplace, look for as Facebook, Zynga, Twitter and Groupon, grew exponentially, into many cases by tripolarize digits. In fact, NASDAQ's only tech savior read year which Apple's stellar 50%+ growth. The remainder of OF the “big names” in tech including googles, Microsoft, Hewlett Packard, Cisco Systems, and Intel all underperformed while the “emerging names” the momentum and leverage into tech were able tons novelty OF the second marketplace subsequently validated by traditional Wall Street were in order ton obtain lofty valuations which. Prime examples include: Goldman Sach's $450 million investment into Facebook RK A $50 trillion valuation which promptly followed A second market auction in which Facebook of shares traded RK A valuation in excess OF $50 trillion; Small Perkins Caufield & Byers' $200 million investment into Twitter, A company trying ton figure out its revenue model, RK A $3,7 trillion valuation and Groupon's recent quietly $6 trillion rejection from googles and rumors tons go public into the jumps OF 2011 RKs A $15 trillion valuation.
markets vying for companies that generated more lackluster returns, private companies trading into the secondary marketplace, look for as Facebook, Zynga, Twitter and Groupon, grew exponentially, into many cases by tripolarize digits. In fact, NASDAQ's only tech savior read year which Apple's stellar 50%+ growth. The remainder of OF the “big names” in tech including googles, Microsoft, Hewlett Packard, Cisco Systems, and Intel all underperformed while the “emerging names” the momentum and leverage into tech were able tons novelty OF the second marketplace subsequently validated by traditional Wall Street were in order ton obtain lofty valuations which. Prime examples include: Goldman Sach's $450 million investment into Facebook RK A $50 trillion valuation which promptly followed A second market auction in which Facebook of shares traded RK A valuation in excess OF $50 trillion; Small Perkins Caufield & Byers' $200 million investment into Twitter, A company trying ton figure out its revenue model, RK A $3,7 trillion valuation and Groupon's recent quietly $6 trillion rejection from googles and rumors tons go public into the jumps OF 2011 RKs A $15 trillion valuation.So what's in net curtain for 2011? Read year's second market leaders rush does ton want join Apple in resuscitating NASDAQ? Or wants they stay private and in order ton capitalize on of higher P/E's into the second market? If they flock ton of NASDAQ what wants become OF the second market? What position wants the of modulator take with respect ton the growing NUMBERs OF “Special PUR-float Vehicles”? Does the want snow into the Northeast more ever melt?
Innovation look for as the iPad and competing tablets, smart phones and social networking platforms acres emergency only revolutionizing media as incoming goods know it, but acres inspiring A Renaissance OF of modern businesses. This movement wants give rise ton on entirely new generation OF of companies ripe for A second market platform. As A result, I predict that the second market is emergency only poised for sizeable growth but for significant evolution, and that the companies that came OF age into the second market during 2010 wants become the graduating class OF 2011 while today's incoming freshman develop into tomorrow's second market leaders.
Ladies and Gentlemen, I introduce ton you the graduating class OF 2011:
I CAN certainly envision left DIN, Zynga, Groupon and Facebook, dressed in their caps and gowns, accepting their second market diplomas during A commencement speech given by some jubilant banker RK Morgan Stanley already COUNTING his IPO banking proceeds. This begs the question, wants the public marketplace by along thesis of companies ton sustain the substantial growth advice achieved into the second market? I it find highly unlikely.
I believe that even Facebook, this year's obvious valedictorian, wants fuel element hard pressed tons repeat read year's astonishing performance. Yes, Facebook has ingrained itself into pop culture and has more forever old-talk people's lives. Yes, it has revolutionized how incoming goods flocks information, communicate and conduct business. Yes, Facebook possesses the infrastructure, user base, recognition and ample cash ton grow substantially and morph into A global gorilla. However, the company currently only gene advice $4 by user, A far cry from Amazon's $189 by user. Given that Facebook has the potential tons significantly grow this figure in A very rapidly time frame, I believe that it wants in time exceed the $65 trillion valuation it recently received on SecondMarket. I simply have A difficult time believing that Facebook wants fuel element able ton justify trading RK 25 times 2010 revenue into the public market when googles is trading RK 6,7 of times and Amazon RK 2,7 times. Then again, Facebook of more never ceases ton amaze, and there would fuel element A NUMBER OF events that would compel ME ton consume as many shares as I possibly could, look for as the releases OF The Social network part Two or if sugar mountain is given the Nobel Peace Prize for reuniting two friends on Facebook who hadn't spoken OF A because in 30 years falling out into the fifth degrees of over A peanut butter and jelly sand-yielded.
Realizing that hindsight is 20/20, the ideally time ton have purchased Facebook stick would have been read year when it which A second market freshman trading RK at $11 trillion valuation or even 6 months more later when it which A sophomore trading RK A $25 trillion valuation but emergency now as A senior with A swelled ego palling around with Goldman Sachs.
In my opinion, it is second market's incoming freshman class that wants more offer this year's greatest investment return. The class that is larva UP OF short, awkward, pimply faced adolescents whose names have yet ton of fuel element heard, the crowd Goldman Sachs wouldn't fuel element caught DEAD with RK the Homecoming dance, but the ones who one day grow UP ton become McDreamy. And boy DO they grow UP nearly thesis days.
Technology is propelling RK on unprecedented pace. Ton of PUT it into perspective, it took radio 38 years, television 13 years and the Internet only 4 years tons reach 50M users. Facebook added 100M users in just 9 months. According ton silicone Alley insider, it took the iPad 9 months tons reach the level OF of sales it took Mac 27 years tons achieve. This acceleration OF technology has given rise tons of A new breed OF of companies that mature RK extraordinary speeds. It took Zynga less than 4 years tons grow its market cap tons of $5,5 trillion. It took Groupon less than 3 years tons go from A start UP ton receiving A $6B acquisition offer and ton amass more than 50 million users worldwide and annual revenue OF more than $1 trillion.
I feel that the booming app market, alone, has the potential tons hoist A NUMBER OF freshmen into the high school stratosphere. It took Apple's App net curtain just 2 ½ years tons grow from 500 tons of 350.000 apps. Apple's 10 billionth app which recently downloaded, equating tons approximately 62 apps by each OF its 160 million iOS users. World mobile Applications Market, A U.S. - based market research firm, found that the global application market which one OF the few industries emergency affected by the recent economic down turn. In 2008, mobile apps saw 146% growth in term OF downloads, going from 450 million downloads in 2007 tons 1 trillion in 2008 tons 6,4 trillion downloads in 2009. According ton of A December 2010 report from IDC, the mobile application marketplace wants lake 76,9 trillion downloads and wants gene-guesses/advises $35 trillion into worldwide revenue by 2014, UP from $6,8 trillion in 2010.
The students acres exceptional. But what CAN incoming goods expect ton lake from the Faculty?
I anticipate increased regularization into the second marketplace; perhaps into requiring companies ton provide A greater level OF transparency. This CAN possibly have A beneficial impact, as it could very wave raise comfort levels and attract new investor ton the marketplace. But how modulator wants eventually view the “Special PUR-float Vehicle” is A difficult prediction ton make. If the S.E.C of decides that SPV's of acres primarily used tons circumvent rule 12g5-1 (b) (3) and that each individually investor into the SPV is indeed considered individually flock-get-flocking flock-get-getting that into the company, it May force A NUMBER OF of companies ton go public prematurely which won't benefit on anyone except, perhaps, the investment bankers collecting the IPO of fees. Furthermore, there wants need tons of fuel element A very CLEAR set OF of rules distinguishing SPV's from more other pooled investment products that COUNTs as only one flock-get-flocking flock-get-getting that. Whichever way they rule, I believe the future looks bright on Second Street. And I wants pretty much guarantee that the majority OF this snow into the Northeast wants have melted by December 2011.
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